Analisis Jalur Pada Impor, Ekspor, dan Kurs Terhadap Inflasi dengan Cadangan Devisa sebagai Intervening Variable
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30983/lattice.v4i1.8420Keywords:
Impor, Ekspor, Kurs, Cadangan Devisa, InflasiAbstract
This study explores the relationship between imports, exports, and exchange rates on inflation, with foreign exchange reserves acting as an intervening variable, using path analysis methods. This research arises from the need to understand how foreign exchange reserves can mitigate the impact of external instability on inflation, a topic often overlooked in previous studies. Secondary data were collected from various official sources, including Bank Indonesia and Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), to analyze the variabels of import value (X1), export value (X2), exchange rate (X3), foreign exchange reserves (Y1), and inflation (Y2). Path analysis results show that import, export, and exchange rates have a significant impact on foreign exchange reserves, with a coefficient of determination (R²) 56.2%. Additionally, foreign exchange reserves play a crucial role in mediating this relationship, with a total determination coefficient (M) of 91.5% for the effect on inflation. This means that 91.5% of the variation in inflation can be explained by the combination of these variables. The study concludes that foreign exchange reserves are a one of key instrument in stabilizing inflation amid fluctuations in imports, exports, and exchange rates, and provides policy recommendations to strengthen foreign exchange reserves as a more effective economic stabilization strategy.
Penelitian ini mengeksplorasi keterkaitan antara impor, ekspor, dan kurs terhadap inflasi dengan cadangan devisa sebagai intervening variable, menggunakan metode analisis jalur. Penelitian ini berangkat dari kebutuhan untuk memahami bagaimana cadangan devisa dapat memitigasi dampak ketidakstabilan eksternal terhadap inflasi, yang sering kali kurang diperhatikan dalam studi sebelumnya. Data sekunder diperoleh dari berbagai sumber resmi, termasuk Bank Indonesia dan Badan Pusat Statistik, untuk menganalisis variabel nilai impor (X1), ekspor (X2), kurs (X3), cadangan devisa (Y1), dan inflasi (Y2). Hasil analisis jalur menunjukkan bahwa nilai impor, ekspor, dan kurs memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap cadangan devisa, dengan koefisien determinasi (R²) sebesar 56,2%. Selain itu, cadangan devisa terbukti memainkan peran penting dalam memediasi hubungan ini, dengan koefisien determinasi total (M) sebesar 91,5% untuk pengaruh terhadap inflasi. Artinya, 91,5% variasi inflasi dapat dijelaskan oleh kombinasi variabel-variabel ini. Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa cadangan devisa merupakan salah satu instrumen kunci dalam menstabilkan inflasi di tengah fluktuasi impor, ekspor, dan kurs, serta memberikan rekomendasi kebijakan untuk memperkuat cadangan devisa sebagai strategi stabilisasi ekonomi yang lebih efektif
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