Penerapan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing dalam Memprediksi Jumlah Peserta Pelatihan Masyarakat
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30983/lattice.v2i2.5937Keywords:
MAE, MAPE, MSE, prediction, Single Exponential SmoothingAbstract
Training of communities around forests is needed to improve the management of non-timber forest products for community empowerment. This training activity is carried out every year, so it is necessary to design forestry training for the community. Therefore, it is required to predict the number of incoming trainees so that the training can be carried out evenly by forestry extension workers. This study aims to determine the application of the Single Exponential Smoothing method in predicting the number of community trainees in 2022. This study used a trial system of testing values using 0.1 to 0.9 and minimized errors by calculating MAE, MSE, and MAPE. Based on the results of the study, it is predicted that the number of community training participants in 2022 using the Single Exponential Smoothing method with  with a minimum MAPE of  with several community training participants 2022 as many as 186 participants.
Pelatihan masyarakat sekitar hutan diperlukan sebagai upaya peningkatan pengelolaan hasil hutan non kayu guna pemberdayaan masyarakat. Kegiatan pelatihan ini dilaksanakan setiap tahun, sehingga diperlukan perancangan pelatihan kehutanan bagi masyarakat. Oleh karena itu, perlu diprediksi jumlah peserta pelatihan yang akan datang agar pelatihan dapat dilaksanakan secara merata oleh penyuluh kehutanan. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui penerapan metode Single Exponensial Smoothing dalam memprediksi jumlah peserta pelatihan masyarakat pada tahun 2022. Penelitian ini menggunakan system trial pengujian nilai dengan menggunakan 0,1 sampai dengan 0,9 dan meminimumkan error dengan menghitung MAE, MSE, dan MAPE. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian, diprediksi jumlah peserta pelatihan masyarakat tahun 2022 menggunakan metode Single Exponential Smoothing dengan  dengan minimum MAPE sebesar 8,9% dengan jumlah peserta pelatihan masyarakat tahun 2022 sebanyak 186 peserta.
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