PREMI ASURANSI PERAWATAN JANGKA PANJANG


Authors :
(1) Tasnim Rahmat Mail (Pendidikan Matematika IAIN Bukittinggi)

Abstract


Long-term care is given to people who have reached a stage in life, where they depend on others people for their social, personal and medical. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Service (CMS) sad that about nine million men and women over the age of 65 in the US will need long-term care assistance in 2006. And it is estimated that by 2020 there are about 12 million Americans will need treatment long-term. Most insurance companies do not want to remove this product because the cost is difficult to forecast. Long-term care (LTC) can be modeled by markov model multistate. Long-term care insurance is quite difficult to determine the appropriate premiums and risk, for lack of information obtained. Moreover the duration of their lives is strongly influenced by demographic trends. Estimated transtitionon a state model with approach likelihood maximum. The framework adopted is a multistate, continuous time models, the determination of premiums and individual risk. Abstract Perawatan jangka panjang diberikan kepada orang-orang yang telah mencapai suatu tahap dalam hidup, di mana mereka bergantung pada orang lain untuk kebutuhan sosial, pribadi dan medis. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Service (CMS) mengatakan bahwa sekitar sembilan juta laki-laki dan wanita di atas usia 65 di AS akan memerlukan bantuan perawatan jangka panjang pada tahun 2006. Dan diperkirakan pada tahun 2020 ada sekitar 12 juta orang AS akan membutuhkan perawatan jangka panjang. Kebanyakan perusahaan asuransi tidak mau mengeluarkan produk ini karena biaya yang sulit untuk diramalkan. Perawatan Jangka Panjang (LTC) bisa dimodelkan dengan model markov multi status. Asuransi Perawatan jangka panjang merupakan asuransi yang cukup sulit untuk menentukan premi dan resiko yang tepat, karena kekurangan informasi yang diperoleh. Terlebih lagi durasi hidup mereka sangat dipengaruhi oleh tren demografis. Estimasi transisi pada suatu model status dengan pendekatan maksimum likelihood. Dan menggunakan Kolmogorov Backward Forward dalam probabilitas transisi. Kerangka yang dianut adalah multistate, model waktu kontinu, penetapan premi.

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| DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.30983/es.v1i2.426

References

Olivieri, A, and Pitacco, E. 2001. Facing LTC Risks, Proceedings of the 32nd International ASTIN Colloquium, Washington.

Haberman, S. and Pitacco, E., 1999. Actuarial Models for Disability Insurance. CRC Press LCC. Florida.

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.30983/es.v1i2.426

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